Have You Noticed Your Canadian Project Pipeline Declining?

You’re not alone.

Across Canada, commercial real estate developers, brokers, and investors are asking the same question: “Where have all the projects gone?” The slowdown is real—and the data backs it up.
In 2024, Canada’s commercial real estate sector experienced its lowest investment volume in years. Though a recovery is expected in 2025, projections remain modest. According to CBRE, total commercial investment in Canada is forecasted to reach just $48 billion in 2025—a modest rebound from $45 billion in 2024, but still well below pre-pandemic levels.

So, what’s driving the decline?

1. Higher Thresholds for ReturnsRising construction costs and material shortages have made it harder to justify new developments. Developers are now facing stricter return requirements from investors and lenders, putting many speculative projects on ice.
2. Financing ConstraintsBond yields and interest rates remain elevated, cooling capital flows into the commercial sector. Without clear policy direction or stable market signals, many funders are taking a wait-and-see approach.
3. Sectoral ShiftsNot all commercial asset classes are faring equally. Industrial and multi-family properties remain hot, particularly student housing, logistics, and purpose-built rentals. In contrast, office and mixed-use retail are still grappling with high vacancy rates and uncertain tenant demand.
4. Geography MattersMarkets like Alberta and Saskatchewan are outperforming the rest of Canada, particularly in logistics and infrastructure. Meanwhile, urban cores in Ontario and British Columbia are seeing investors hesitate as affordability, zoning, and policy questions linger.
   
   What Does This Mean for You?
   If your project pipeline has slowed, it’s not due to lack of effort. The market itself is evolving—and so must we.
   
   At The Coterie Group, we’re responding by doubling down on:
   
   Multi-family and industrial development opportunities
   Strong pre-leasing and pre-sale structures
   Creative capital stack strategies
   Regional partnerships where growth remains strong
   
   Let’s Realign
   If you’re holding onto a good project and can’t seem to move it forward, it might be time to rethink structure, partners, or strategy. We’d be happy to take a look.
   
   Email us at info@thecoteriegroup.com and let’s talk.
   The Coterie Group | Creative Capital for Complex Deals